There is clearly a pessimistic outlook for the aviation sector for the coming years. Is the sector in recession? Do we have an overcapacity problem in many key and developing markets? How deep will the trough be in a forthcoming cyclical downturn? Will we see more airline failures? Will consolidation or joint ventures be the right path for the future? Are we going to be hit by a more restrictive operational landscape?
There are so many questions that are unanswerable. The Blue Swan Daily completed an analysis of capacity growth for the first half of 2019 in the hope we could bring some optimism, unfortunately what we found upon investigating OAG schedule data was that 1H 2019 delivered one of the shallowest rise in year-on-year capacity this decade at 3.5%, noticeably down on the 6%+ rates recorded in each of the past three years.
Our attempts at optimism was rewarded with 1H not delivering the smallest year-on-year growth. That was recorded in 2013 when capacity rose 3.2%. We should also be thankful for positive growth and not a continued use of what is becoming a popular buzzword, 'negative growth'. However, 70 of the 234 countries or territories (by IATA definition) are in that 'negative growth' category for the six month period.
We could dwell on those declining performers, but let's try to remain positive as we start a new working week.
Our QUESTION OF THE WEEK is… We are now more than half way through 2019, but which ten countries saw the largest rise in departing air seats in 1H 2019?
JOIN IN THE FUN: Send your answers to: The Blue Swan Daily Content Team
We will be revealing the answers at the same time next week, when we will be setting another question.
Last week we asked…Ryanair is the largest operator in terms of capacity in six countries this summer, but can you name them all?
We had already given you Malta as answer so you only had to name five other countries where Ryanair dominates system seat capacity this summer. These are Italy, Lithuania, Republic of Ireland, Slovakia and Spain.