Global Risk Map highlights the world is becoming ‘ever more complex for individuals and organisations alike’

The world is becoming “ever more complex for individuals and organisations alike,” according to the recently released Drum Cussac’s 2019 Global Risk Map, which provides businesses with an overview of the threats that may face travellers and operations over the next 12 months.


Summary:

  • New research from travel risk consultancy Drum Cussac warns that the world is becoming ‘ever more complex for individuals and organisations alike’;
  • Its 2019 Global Risk Map provides businesses with an overview of the threats that may face travellers and operations over the next 12 months;
  • The whitepaper breaks down developing situations across regions of the world, including Brexit and tensions in Ukraine in Europe, Argentina’s faltering economy, continent-wide election uncertainty in Sub-Saharan Africa, and terrorism in Southeast Asia.

Combining insights from the travel risk consultancy’s in-house intelligence and analysis services team with infographics, the 2019 Global Risk Map whitepaper has been developed to be used as a tool for organisations with global business interests. Drum Cussac says it is underpinned by “risk intelligence and on-the-ground insights” and follows on from its World Map of Risk released earlier this year.

The report breaks down developing situations across five key global regions, including Brexit and tensions in Ukraine for Europe, Argentina’s faltering economy and the US mid-term elections in the Americas, situations in both Yemen and Libya in the Middle East and North Africa, continent-wide election uncertainty in Sub-Saharan Africa, and terrorism in Southeast Asia for the Asia Pacific region.

“Following a turbulent year that started with a nuclear stand-off on the Korean Peninsula and that is ending with clashes between Ukraine and Russia at sea, the world is becoming ever more complex for individuals and organisations alike,” says Tom Roberts, head of intelligence and analysis services, Drum Cussac. “It is vital to understand the potential threats you face in order to avoid, mitigate or respond effectively to them.”

In Europe, the whitepaper says political discourse has been dominated by Brexit, creating “significant uncertainty in the business environment that is unlikely to be allayed any time soon”. Elsewhere on the continent, it says the rise of populism has “fragmented the political environment” and challenged the traditional centre-left or centre-right governments, highlighting Hungary and Poland where Governments with a populist bent, have attempted to weaken core liberal institutions.

It says; “2019 will be a significant year for the European Union, whose direction will be shaped by its own elections. Yet it may be developments on the fringes of Europe, especially in Ukraine, which will be more consequential

It’s a similar story across the Americas, where the whitepaper identifies political power, most notably as populist candidacies take control “due to public angst over corruption and frustration with the political establishment”. The Blue Swan Daily has previously highlighted how Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador in Mexico and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil mounted successful populist bids handing over Latin America’s two biggest economies to ‘outsider’ politicians.

The whitepaper says the success of the Bolsonaro presidency in 2019 will “be determined by his ability to form a stable and working coalition”, while ongoing US political polarisation will be a risk with a divided Congress “further constraining the amount of legislation that will be passed”. Further flashpoints on the continent will “come from Venezuela’s economic turmoil and Nicaragua’s unrest,” it adds..

In Africa the whitepaper says that there are over a dozen countries that are slated to hold elections in 2019, and it says several incumbent governments will face “significant challenges as they seek to extend their time in office”. It identifies the elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is hoping for a first peaceful transition since independence, and Nigeria and South Africa, the continent’s two largest economies, will be “especially significant for regional dynamics”.

The whitepaper notes that Al-Shabaab in Somalia, extremists in Sahel, and a possible resurgence of Islamic State in ungoverned parts of Libya will “continue to pose a significant challenge” across Africa, while it says 2019 “will be a critical time for Ethiopia’s reforms,” having experienced a rapid period of political and security sector reform in 2018. “If the reform programme is continued and expanded, it is likely that crucial sectors of Ethiopia’s economy will be opened up to foreign investment after decades of centralised control,” it adds.

In Asia and Oceania, the whitepaper warns that Islamist militant groups “will continue to undermine Southeast Asia’s security environment, most notably in Indonesia and the Philippines”. In Indonesia, it says political commentary has been “dominated by identity politics,” but changing voting patterns and the youth vote “will be equally important for its 2019 elections”.

Despite a “historic summit and an easing of tensions” on the Korean Peninsula this year, it believes any lasting deal is “unlikely to be reached in the short-term,” and there is credible risk that “years of mistrust and/or negative rhetoric from other stakeholders such as the US or Japan could undermine possible talks.”