That is down from the 253,000 planned at the start of last week, a -4.3% reduction. This is the lowest weekly cut since the Coronavirus began its global spread and suggests we do appear to now be reaching the bottom of the curve, in terms of flight frequencies, at least.
When compared to the flight schedules filed by airlines as at the start of this year, the number of one-way flights removed during the week commencing 20-Apr-2020 is just over 452,000 departures, a -65.1% reduction.
This continues a trend which saw just over 442,000 departures removed in the week commencing 13-Apr-2020, a -63.6% reduction. Previously, just under 400,000 departure were removed in the week commencing 06-Apr-2020, a 58.1% reduction, while 217,000 departures were removed in the week commencing 23-Mar-2020, a -29.6% reduction and 347,000 departures removed in the week commencing 30-Mar-2020, a -50.1% reduction on what we had expected.
CHART - The reduction in the number of weekly flight departures from each of the world's 20 largest aviation markets is significant
Source: The Blue Swan Daily and OAG (Data: w/c 20-Apr-2020)
Earlier this week we highlighted how China's latest network growth has coincided with the latest cuts among US carriers and this had put the country on the top of the world - in terms of air capacity, at least. This has continued with this week's schedule update, and the gap has actually widened, but not due to China's recovery, but a further reduction in capacity from the US.
CHART - It has come four years earlier than anticipated and is likely only temporary, but China is currently the world's largest aviation market
Source: The Blue Swan Daily and OAG
Based on this week's schedule alone, alongside the China and US switch, Russia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Italy have all jumped into the world's top ten country markets by capacity, while Indonesia has moved up the rankings and Japan have remain unchanged. India has slipped down the ranking and the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, Brazil and France have fallen out of the top ten.
CHART - The new aviation world order sees China at the top of the ranking, while Russia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Italy enter the top ten markets by capacity
Source: The Blue Swan Daily and OAG (Data: w/c 20-Apr-2020)
The year at started positively for global air transport. Across the first three weeks capacity levels were up year-on-year, albeit a declining trend was already evident. For the week commencing 06-Jan-2020 capacity was up +3.5%, followed in week commencing 13-Jan-2020 by +3.4%, then +2.5% for week commencing 20-Jan-2020 and then +2.0% for week commencing 27-Jan-2020. Now, this week, we have seen the year-on-year capacity pass the -70% mark for the first time, falling -71.7%.
CHART - Global air capacity has collapsed as the Covid-19 pandemic has spread across the world
Source: The Blue Swan Daily and OAG (data: w/c 20-Apr-2020)
The rate at which airlines are cutting schedules is slowing and we are now increasingly hearing reports of airlines filing increased schedules from next month, including a number of airlines looking at resuming operations. It is hopeful that we are reaching the bottom of the curve. Next week will prove if we are already there.