Coronavirus statistics snapshot – Flight frequencies slip again: Was last week an anomaly and we haven't yet hit the floor or are we now bumping along the bottom of a ‘U’ shaped recovery?

6 May, 2020

Last week's enthusiasm that the reduction in global flight frequencies may have hit its inflection point may have been a little premature. The latest The Blue Swan Daily analysis of OAG flight schedules for this week shows that the total number of flights scheduled to operate during the week commencing 04-May-2020 is just under 229,000, a notable decline on last week's total of 248,000.

Maybe we are now setting along a bumpy path at the bottom of a likely U-shaped recovery, but perhaps we have just hit that void between a reduction in repatriation services and the start of an expected ramp up in air services in the coming weeks. The level of flights is likely to remain low for the coming weeks, but airlines are increasingly highlighting plans to resume services with more and more filing future flight schedules for the coming months. Obviously, these remain speculative, but they do show a strong intent to get the industry flying again.

This week's global flight frequencies are down -7.8% on last week. Interestingly, global air capacity for the week is down more than a quarter (-27.1%) on the levels that were planned at this time last week with over 11 million additional seats being removed, reducing levels to just over 30 million.

CHART - The reduction in the number of weekly flight departures from each of the 20 largest aviation markets in the world is significant when compared to the same week last yearSource: The Blue Swan Daily and OAG (data: 05-May-2020)

Comparing this week's schedules with the comparable week last year (week commencing 06-May-2019), global flight frequencies are down -69.1% and global seat capacity is down -72.1%. In almost half of the top 20 aviation economies (nine) that reduction in flight frequencies is more than -90% and a further five are below the global average, including the United States of America, down -73.0%.

The US is now firmly positioned as the world's second largest aviation economy having been overtaken by China in Apr-2020. There are under 50,000 weekly flights scheduled in the country this week, down from almost 185,000 this time last year.

We continue to closely monitor China and its recovery. This week its capacity levels are down less than a third on the levels recorded this time last year. In a single week it has boosted its capacity inventory by +12.7% - a further -29.0% contraction in the US seat inventory versus last week has widened the gap between the two markets. In fact, this week alone, China's seat inventory is almost double that of the US.

CHART - It has come four years earlier than anticipated and is likely only temporary, but China is currently the world's largest aviation marketSource: The Blue Swan Daily and OAG (data: 05-May-2020)

Key to China's rise is its significant domestic market. The data had shown that Apr-2020 was a mixed month with domestic capacity in the country being adjusted up and down, but ended with the highest number of domestic seats planned for almost three months.

May-2020 has started in a positive fashion with a further rise in domestic capacity, taking weekly seats back above ten million for the first time since early Feb-2020. Planned schedules for the rest of May-2020 show domestic Chinese capacity rising a quarter to almost 13 million seats by the end of the month, but these remain subject to change.

CHART - Growth in domestic capacity in China remains fairly flat but levels have inched up this weekSource: The Blue Swan Daily and OAG (data: 05-May-2020)

The year had started positively for global air transport. Across the first three weeks capacity levels were up year-on-year, albeit a declining trend was already evident. For the week commencing 06-Jan-2020 capacity was up +3.5%, followed in week commencing 13-Jan-2020 by +3.4%, then +2.5% for week commencing 20-Jan-2020 and then +2.0% for week commencing 27-Jan-2020.

The last two weeks had seen the year-on-year capacity pass the -70% mark for the first time, falling -71.7%. in the week commencing 20-Apr-2020 and -70.4% in the week commencing 27-Apr-2020. This week we have a hit a new low with global seat capacity is down -72.1% year-on-year.

CHART - Global air capacity has collapsed as the Covid-19 pandemic has spread across the worldSource: The Blue Swan Daily and OAG (data: 05-May-2020)

This week's update may leave us feeling a little bit downhearted, but there are increasingly positive messages being said by governments across the world as restrictions are slowly being lifted. Many worry this may be too early and could lead to another spike in Covid-19 cases, Only time will tell!

However, let's concentrate on the positives and the stories like the potential return of Trans-Tasman aviation in a sterile bubble between Australia and New Zealand and Lithuania contemplating lifting some border restrictions. As is often said: 'walk before you run'... for aviation it is going to be one small step at a time!