BLOG: Live from Berlin – insights from the CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit

Welcome to live coverage from The Blue Swan Daily of the CAPA – Centre for Aviation World Aviation Outlook Summit in Berlin, the capital and largest city in Germany.

As the foremost authority on aviation in the world, CAPA – Centre for Aviation is once again delivering its World Aviation Outlook Summit, designed to provide a market outlook for 2019 and review the commercial and operational pillars that will drive global airline strategic decision-making.

What trends and opportunities await our industry? What strategic challenges and risks are we set to face in the year ahead? These are just two of the main questions that will be answered in what is sure to be a lively two-day conference set to the backdrop of one of Europe’s oldest cities, steeped in history.


AGENDA – View the full CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit agenda.

LIVE STREAM – CAPA – Centre for Aviation are pleased to offer a free live stream of the World Aviation Outlook Summit. Visit centreforaviation.com during the event hours for access.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION! Follow the CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit on Twitter and if you have any comments on the topics being explored at the Summit then join the debate: #CAPASummit.


Wednesday 28th November 2018

13:45 – CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit… DONE!

A big thank you from all of the CAPA – Centre for Aviation team to everyone who attended the CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit and all partners and the sponsors that made the event possible. We hope you enjoyed all the insightful discussions whether in attendance in Berlin, via our live stream or from following the blog. Look out on The Blue Swan Daily for more event content in the coming days and CAPA TV in the coming weeks for exclusive video interviews from the event.


Wednesday 28th November 2018

13:30 – A big thank you to all our event partners


Wednesday 28th November 2018

13:10 – Did you know that Malta’s capital city, Valletta, is one of the most concentrated historical areas in the world?

Malta may only be a small island nation, but is an attractive destination for big budget movies. You would have seen it in major blockbuster productions such as Gladiator, World War Z and Captain Philips as well as TV series like Game of Thrones. You can see what it has to offer yourself when it hosts the 2019 CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit next December.

Hosted by the Ministry for Tourism for Malta, the longstanding annual CAPA Summit will provide an in-depth, big picture overview of the global aviation outlook, as well as a review of trends and challenges facing the industry in the years to come.

“Malta is establishing itself globally as a leading nation for innovation and excellence and this is reflected in our booming aviation sector, which is a leader in maintenance, aircraft registration, leasing, finance, as well as crew and flight training,” says Malta minister of tourism, Konrad Mizzi.

“The Maltese islands continue to play host to prestigious events and meetings from all over the world and we are pleased that the tradition will continue with CAPA’s 2019 World Aviation Outlook Summit in December 2019, he adds.


Wednesday 28th November 2018

12:50 – We reach our summit conclusion with the now well-known CAPA Great Debate session

The CAPA Great Debate has been a popular session at previous events in the company’s portfolio. Here in Berlin the big question is a controversial one… Can aviation unions be a force for good?

Looking at the European market, all the continent’s major carriers have overhauled their cost structures in the last decade or so in the face of liberalisation, the rise of LCCs and increasing competition. Each wave of change has been met with inevitable resistance from traditional labour forces, who have had a comparatively disproportionate impact on the aviation sector compared with other industries, in the process stymieing management restructuring efforts (and massively disrupting everyday operations) for the sake of workers’ rights.

ALPA, regulatory counsel & senior attorney, David Semanchik; CityJet, CEO, Pat Byrne, Vereinigung Cockpit director international affairs, Robert Spuerk and Austrian Aviation Association, chairman, Peter Malanik are taking sides on the question with Aviation Strategy & Concepts, managing director, Ulrich Schulte-Strathaus keeping order.


Wednesday 28th November 2018

12:10 – Up Next… Environmental outlook: Aviation growth and environmental sustainability. Are the two goals mutually exclusive?

The aviation industry has been proactive in implementing environmentally sound practices. Global governing bodies such as ICAO and IATA as well as individual member companies have made pledges of varying degrees to promote environmental sustainability.

Stakeholders across the whole spectrum of the industry need to collaborate to ensure that the requisite operational, technological and infrastructure advancements are being made to hit sustainability targets.

These efforts have resulted in the advent of new generation aircraft, which is boosting fuel efficiency, the scaling of alternative sustainable aviation fuels and air traffic system modernisation. Meanwhile, the industry’s carbon offsetting scheme, CORSIA is set to come online in 2019.


Wednesday 28th November 2018

11:50 – Skyscanner: ‘We are filling 17 Dreamliners an hour in and out of Europe’

As the mobile travel marketplace evolves, what are the lessons to ensure airlines continue to win? Skyscanner, senior director, strategic partnerships, Hugh Aitken shares his thoughts. The UK company has become a household name in the sector and in the past 12 months alone has seen 3.5 billion travel searches on its platform in Europe.  This has delivered 50+ million passengers and USD20 billion in ticket value. “We are filling 17 Dreamliners an hour in and out of Europe,” says Mr Aitken.

In terms of the marketplace and traveller habits, he adds there are a “plethora of ways to search for travel”, adding 40% of users type “London to anywhere” in searches as they don’t know where they want to go.


Wednesday 28th November 2018

11:15 – Up Next… In conversation with Air Malta’s chairman

Last night the restructuring efforts of Air Malta were recognised with the Mediterranean flag carrier being awarded the CAPA – Centre for Aviation Airline Turnaround of the Year 2018 trophy.  CAPA’s executive chairman, Peter Harbison finds out more about the transformation of the airline directly from its chairman, Charles Mangion.


Wednesday 28th November 2018

11:05 – Europe market outlook debate – some insights


Wednesday 28th November 2018

10:45 – Join the debate – via #CAPASummit


Wednesday 28th November 2018

10:30 – Up Next… Europe market outlook: Slow and steady wins the race? The ongoing and gradual restructure of the European airline market

Although Europe has experienced some notable waves of merger and acquisition activity in the last 14 years – such as the Air France/KLM and BA/Iberia mergers and various Lufthansa Group acquisitions – the region remains one of the most highly fragmented airline markets globally.

There are more airline groups operating in Europe than in any other region in the world and their profitability is lower compared with, for example, the tightly controlled North American market. Any consolidation to date hasn’t led to any meaningful change in the structure of the European airline market, nor has the disappearance of several airlines led to greater market concentration.

Clearly, consolidation has been slow and steady, but the region’s top groups wield the power and capital to significantly speed up the process. Is this on the horizon or will consolidation activity continue to amble along at its current pace?


Wednesday 28th November 2018

10:25 – More from our digital outlook discussion – via out twitter account 


Wednesday 28th November 2018

10:15 – Airlines must foster a more ‘agile mindset’ to digital development


Wednesday 28th November 2018

09:50 – Up next… Digital outlook: true, fast and profitable innovation – speeding up the transformation of the industry

The digital economy has transformed consumer expectations around the way they research, purchase and experience the airline product. As a result airlines need to work hard to differentiate their product offering and deliver a personalised and seamless experience for customers throughout the entire travel process.

With airlines starting to see themselves as digital companies rather than just transportation companies enabling passengers to get from A to B, there is now a greater inclination for experimentation, with many airlines (and manufacturers) leaning on creative tech start ups to find solutions for their technology, operations and customer service problems.

This is creating interfaces between large aviation organisations and the growing global travel tech scene. Agility and out-of-the-box thinking seems to be the USP for many startups aiming to develop and market business model innovations for the aviation industry.


Wednesday 28th November 2018

09:45 – Join the debate – via #CAPASummit


Wednesday 28th November 2018

09:40 – Wizz Air’s outlook is ‘liberating lives through affordable travel’

So if Technology isn’t going to be the thing that sets companies apart in the future of travel, what will it be? “Truly great companies have something that drives them which is bigger than next quarter’s profit numbers. The more they change the more they come back to the basics – companies with a real purpose have better chance of success,” says Wizz Air, CEO, Jozsef Varadi. “Wizz Air has changed peoples lives for the better.”

Mr Varadi describes the use of the Airbus A321 in the Wizz Air network as”a game changer” and “the most efficient narrowbody passenger aircraft”. The type will be the basis of the airline’s future fleet and help it grow its network capacity.


Wednesday 28th November 2018

09:35 – Technology ‘unlikely to be what sets apart the successful travel businesses of the future – everyone will have the technology in some form or other’

While the world is changing, “there are no surprises,” says Wizz Air, CEO, Jozsef Varadi. We have all heard of the incredible technology developments that are shaping our world, he explains. Driverless cars and blockchain stories dominate the media, artificial intelligence is now reality, people get identified and access data with biometric scans. “These are all important and we at Wizz Air are integrating these technologies into our thinking about the future of travel and the future of our business,” he says, but “we are more fast follower than innovator in these technologies, but they are important to our business. It is unlikely to be what sets apart the successful travel businesses of the future – everyone will have the technology in some form or other.”


Wednesday 28th November 2018

09:30 – The future of flying: what’s next for air travel?

The inevitable statement to acknowledge is that “The world is changing – and so are we,” says Wizz Air, CEO, Jozsef Varadi, in his keynote address.

Just ten years ago, in 2008, Wizz Air had just 20 aircraft, on average people in CEE were taking 0.2 flights per person per year, the iPhone had just been invented and we were taking ZERO bookings on mobile devices. Today it has a fleet of 105 aircraft, the propensity to travel has grown to 0.6 trips per person per year and the iPhone XR is the hottest tech. “We currently take around 22% of our bookings on mobile devices,” he explains.

The change will not slow. By 2026 Wizz Air will have 300 aircraft , it expects propensity to travel to have grown to 1.2 (still well behind Western Europe’s 2.0). “I have no idea what the hot mobile device will be – but will probably include wearable Virtual Reality – and we expect over 70 percent of our bookings will be on mobile devices,” says Mr Varadi.


Wednesday 28th November 2018

09:20 – Join the debate – via #CAPASummit


Wednesday 28th November 2018

09:10 – From walled city… to world city 

In Nov-1989, Berlin became one again. The huge wall that separated Berlin for 28 years into East and West fell. Now, Berlin has reinvent itself, and the result seems to have pleased people all over the world. visitBerlin, CEO, Burkhard Kieker says: “From being the most disrupted city in the world, Berlin is a great example of a comeback story… and the world loves comeback stories”.

“This conference offers Berlin Airports, visitBerlin and the new initiative for long-haul Berlin a very good opportunity for discussions with representatives of various airlines. We present Berlin’s chances as an air traffic location,” he adds on hosting the CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit.

“Berlin is your blue unserved ocean,” he informs airlines.


Wednesday 28th November 2018

09:00 – Photo highlights from day one


Wednesday 28th November 2018

08:30 – Daily Mail: Qantas is named airline of the year after launching direct flights between Australia and the UK

After Reuters and the Financial Times, now the Daily Mail is reporting on the CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit…

READ THE COVERAGE: Qantas is named airline of the year after launching direct flights between Australia and the UK


Wednesday 28th November 2018

08:00 – Highlights from yesterday

While we have been sleeping, the team back at CAPA HQ in Sydney have packaged together a short highlight reel from yesterday…


Wednesday 28th November 2018

07:30 – We are prepared for another day of debate and discussion

After yesterday’s wide ranging discussions on the outlook of aviation, we have another four hours of content this morning and into the early afternoon. This includes a keynote address from the new CAPA Airline Executive of the Year, Jozsef Varadi who will be discussing the future of flying and what’s next for air travel.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

23:30 – RECAP: Qantas, WOW air, Air Malta, LEVEL, CityJet and Jozsef Varadi among CAPA Aviation Excellence Award winners

The 2018 CAPA Aviation Awards for Excellence were held tonight as part of the CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit in Berlin. Qantas Group, WOW air, Air Malta, LEVEL and CityJet scooped the airline awards, while Wizz Air CEO Jozsef Varadi received executive of the year. Orlando International and Avinor Oslo airports were also recognised as leaders across two airport categories and Winding Tree won the inaugural Innovation award.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

23:00 – Key insights from the opening day of the CAPA event agenda

CAPA -Centre for Aviation research analyst Hugh Davies has been working away at the back of all of today’s agenda producing News Briefs for CAPA Members. Here’s some of the stories now online to subscribers…

Finnair chief commercial officer: NDC will make a ‘huge difference’ compared with GDS channels
Finnair chief commercial officer Juha Jarvinen, speaking at the CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit, said (27-Nov-2018) NDC will distribute ancillary elements much better than the carrier can through GDS. 50% of passengers buying on finnair.com buy ancillary items, Mr Jarvinen said, adding the carrier has improved GDS channels to sell ancillary, with one in 10 purchasing ancillaries compared with one in 100 passengers three years ago. There is still a “huge difference” compared to what can be done with NDC, Mr Jarvinen concluded.

Sabre Airline Solutions director: Carriers to invest USD4.8bn in technology in 2019
Sabre Airline Solutions director Christophe Viatte, speaking at the CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit, forecast (27-Nov-2018)  carriers will spend USD4.8 billion in technology investments in 2019. Sabre will take a “significant place” in this investment through providing pricing and revenue management.

LEVEL ‘evolving constantly’ to achieve lower costs and a customer centric airline model
LEVEL CEO Vincent Hodder, speaking at the CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit, said (27-Nov-2018) the carrier is “evolving our models constantly” to achieve lower costs and a customer centric, technologically available airline which “hopefully will revolutionise the industry”. He described the carrier as more an evolution from a traditional carrier to a “horizontally stacked architecture”, rather than a virtual carrier.

LOT Polish Airlines CEO: LCCs ‘contributed significantly’ to EU connectivity aims
LOT Polish Airlines CEO Rafał Milczarski, speaking at the CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit, stated (27-Nov-2018) Central Europe was traditionally less affluent due to historical events, and therefore much less developed. He said LCCs have earned respect in these markets. Their business models have brought on significant market growth and “contributed significantly to the political aims of the EU” due to the services they offered within Europe to rapidly boost connectivity.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

22:45 – Financial Times: Brexit Britain close to agreeing open skies deal with US

We highlighted earlier today comments from respected aviation consultant John Byerly, who knows a few things about negotiating air service agreements, and his insight into the framework of a proposed agreement between the UK and US for the post-Brexit world. Latest discussions on this matter are due to take place tomorrow (28-Nov-2018) with the Financial Times now suggesting the deal which, falls short of current EU arrangements but will protect carriers from ownership problems, could soon be ratified.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

22:30 – ERA chief backs CAPA Aviation Awards for Excellence winners

European Regions Airline Association (ERA) director general, Montserrat Barriga shares some kind words for two of tonight’s CAPA Aviation Awards for Excellence winners.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

22:20 – Qantas CEO Alan Joyce reacts to CAPA Airline Group of the Year 2018 award

Hear the thoughts from Alan Joyce, CEO of Qantas, after the Australian flag carrier was crowned Airline Group of the Year 2018 at tonight’s CAPA Aviation Awards for Excellence.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

21:50 – AWARDS: CAPA Aviation Executive of the Year 2018

This award is for the airline executive who has had the greatest individual influence on the aviation industry, demonstrating outstanding strategic thinking and innovative direction for the growth of their business and the industry.

The WINNER is… Jozsef Varadi

“Jozsef Varadi has shown remarkable courage and vision in building a profitable low cost airline in a market historically associated with state owned, bureaucratically run, loss-making flag carriers,” says CAPA – Centre for Aviation executive chairman, Peter Harbison.

Jozsef Varadi was selected for growing Wizz Air into the largest airline in Central/Eastern Europe. Mr Varadi co-founded Wizz Air in 2003 and the airline now carries over 34 million passengers per year with a fleet of 105 aircraft.

Wizz Air won the CAPA Low Cost Airline of the Year in 2016. It has since grown, profitably, by nearly another 50%, recording passenger growth of 24% in 2017 and 20% through the first 11 months of 2018.

In the the decade to FY2018, Wizz Air’s fleet increased from 18 to 93 aircraft and its passenger numbers grew at an average of 21% pa, while its load factor rose from the low 80s to more than 91%. The airline has managed this growth, while also developing a consistent track record as Europe’s second most profitable airline company by operating margin over the past four years.

Wizz Air’s very low unit cost defines it as an ultra-LCC, which allows it to drive demand with very low fares, and its commercial focus means that ancillary revenue is 42% of the total, the highest such share among European airlines. Wizz Air has more aircraft on order, 264, than any other airline in Europe as it seeks to transform its fleet from A320ceo domination to one that is dominated by A321neos in search of even lower unit costs.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

21:45 – AWARDS: CAPA Airline Group of the Year 2018

This award is to the airline that has been the biggest standout strategically during the year, has had the greatest impact on the development of the airline industry, has established itself as a leader, and provided a benchmark for others to follow.

The WINNER is… Qantas Group

“Qantas has had yet another remarkable year, posting a record profit for FY2018 and for the first time connecting the antipodes non-stop by launching nonstop flights from Perth to London,” says CAPA – Centre for Aviation executive chairman,  Peter Harbison. “Linking Australia and the UK nonstop is a major milestone for aviation in Australia and globally. Qantas is now pushing the envelope even further with preparations for nonstop services from Sydney to London, what it correctly claims will be the ‘holy grail’ of flights.”

Qantas was selected for yet another year of strategic accomplishments. Qantas won the CAPA Airline of the Year award in 2015 and has since continued to post some of the highest profit margins in the airline industry while continuing to innovate.

In Mar-2018, Qantas launched service from Perth to London, marking the first ever nonstop link between Australia and Europe. Qantas also has used its new 787 fleet to launch new flights from Melbourne to San Francisco and replace 747-400s on several existing long haul flights, driving efficiency improvements and frequency increases.

Meanwhile, Qantas has pushed Airbus and Boeing this year to develop a new ultra-long range widebody capable of operating nonstop flights from Sydney to London with a full payload of 300 passengers across four classes.

The group committed early this year to 18 A321neoLRs, which will be used by its LCC subsidiary Jetstar Airways to improve efficiency on Australia-Bali routes and launch potential new long haul narrowbody routes to Asia. Jetstar Group’s overseas affiliates, which are all now profitable, are also well positioned to grow by up-gauging to A321neos and A321neoLRs.

The Qantas Group has turned operating profits of at least USD1 billion in its last three fiscal years while generating revenue of USD12 to 13 billion, with ROIC well in excess of its target of 15%. At the same time the airline has been a leader in the areas of customer satisfaction and loyalty programme development.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

21:40 – AWARDS: CAPA Low Cost Airline of the Year 2018

The Low Cost Airline of the Year Award is for the low cost or hybrid airline that has been the biggest standout strategically, has established itself as a leader, has been most innovative, and provided a benchmark for others to follow.

The WINNER is… WOW air

WOW air was selected for pioneering the long haul low cost connecting model, using its Reykjavik hub to offer one-stop services between Europe and North America.

WOW air commenced operations in 2012 and has grown its seat capacity at an average of 28% pa over the past five years. WOW now operates a fleet of 17 narrowbody and three widebody aircraft from its Reykjavik hub to 10 destinations in Europe and 10 in North America. Delhi, its first destination in Asia, is launching on 6-Dec-2018.

WOW air only entered the trans-Atlantic market in Mar-2015, but is now the second largest LCC in this market with a 1.7% seat share.

On 5-Nov-2018, Icelandair announced that it had agreed to take over privately owned WOW air in an all share purchase to create a bigger Icelandic competitive force on the North Atlantic, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval. “It is a mark of WOW air’s success that its biggest and closest competitor’s only response is to buy it,” says CAPA – Centre for Aviation executive chairman, Peter Harbison.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

21:30 – AWARDS: CAPA Regional Airline of the Year 2018

This award is presented to the regional airline that has been the biggest standout strategically, has established itself as a leader, and demonstrated innovation in the regional aviation sector.

The WINNER is… CityJet

“CityJet has very astutely pioneered a new vision of regional airline operations in Europe, focusing on third party wet leasing to offset revenue risk and driving consolidation in pursuit of greater efficiency,” says CAPA – Centre for Aviation executive chairman, Peter Harbison.

CityJet was selected for its successful strategic transformation that has resulted in its emergence as Europe’s leading third party provider of regional airline capacity under ACMI arrangements.

CityJet was a loss-making Air France franchise operator and also had a spell as a scheduled regional operator under its own brand before adopting the ACMI model 2017. Its airline customers now include Brussels Airlines, SAS and Aer Lingus.

CityJet also has emerged as a leading consolidator in the European regional airline market, having acquired Blue1 in 2015 and Cimber Air in 2017, both from SAS. In Jul-2018, CityJet pursued further consolidation by announcing a proposed merger with Air Nostrum that would create Europe’s largest regional airline.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

21:25 – AWARDS: CAPA Airline Turnaround of the Year 2018

The Airline Turnaround of the Year is awarded to an existing airline that has turned around through innovative strategic changes and/or a restructuring exercise.

The WINNER is… Air Malta

“Air Malta is a classic example of the need to remain relevant in the airline sector,” says CAPA – Centre for Aviation executive chairman, Peter Harbison. “For a long time it had seemingly ignored the competition and accepted its own slow decline. But, with some brave decisions it has been reborn and is now profitably flying the flag for Malta. The higher fuel price and volatile currency rates are dark clouds, but Air Malta is now better positioned to weather these market forces.”

Air Malta was selected for its successful transformation, resulting in transformation from a heavy loss-making to a break-even result for the fiscal year ending Mar-2018.

Air Malta had been unprofitable for nearly 20 years as it struggled to overcome multiple challenges, including increasing competition from LCCs, outdated work practices and tensions in the North Africa market, which impacted its traditionally strongest routes. The flag carrier accumulated operating losses of more than USD300 million over the 10 years ending Mar-2017.

The airline has rebuilt its operations with a financially viable business model and hybrid product that now allows it to compete with LCCs. The transformation included a cost control mindset, a reduction in the fleet, increased aircraft utilisation, improved staff productivity and the move to a hybrid business model to serve today’s increasingly price-driven industry.

The airline was able to maintain passenger traffic despite cutting two aircraft from its fleet as utilisation and efficiency improved. Air Malta is now planning further expansion in 2019, leveraging its new low cost base and the emergence of Malta as one of Europe’s fastest growing holiday destinations.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

20:35 – AWARDS: CAPA Airline Start-up of the Year 2018

The Start-up of the Year award is for the past year’s airline start-up that has been the most innovative and had the greatest impact on the industry since launch.

The WINNER is… LEVEL

“LEVEL is an example of a fluid and highly adaptable approach to airline management and a strategy that is key for a disruptor brand in an enormously competitive market,” says CAPA – Centre for Aviation executive chairman, Peter Harbison. “It neatly complements the operations of other airlines under the IAG umbrella, which can feed its own development.”

International Airlines Group (IAG) low cost unit LEVEL was selected for its innovative strategy and rapid growth since launching in Jun-2017.

Born as a brand, but developing what is a new type of airline management model, LEVEL is IAG’s strategic response to the changing dynamics of the sector. Initially flying long haul from Barcelona and more recently Paris, it has this year deviated from that structure to introduce short haul operations out of Vienna.

All three initial operations are very different: there is the external production model where Iberia operates under the Iberia operator certificate out of Barcelona El Prat Airport; the subsidiary model with OpenSkies operating in France as LEVEL France; and the franchise model operated by Anisec Luftfahrt and branded as LEVEL Austria.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

20:30 – AWARDS: CAPA Innovation of the Year 2018

This award is given to the airline, airport or supplier responsible for the most powerful innovation in the industry over the past 12 months.

The WINNER is… Winding Tree

“Blockchain is being used globally to build encrypted, shared platforms, providing a secure and efficient way to track the exchange of goods or information,” says CAPA – Centre for Aviation executive chairman, Peter Harbison. “Winding Tree plans to open the door for innovation in the travel industry.”

Winding Tree was selected for developing innovative blockchain technology for the travel ecosystem.

Winding Tree is a non-profit foundation that drives the development of open-source protocols to allow any company, big or small, or even an individual developer, to try them out and integrate with its blockchain-based decentralised open-source travel distribution platform.

Blockchain is one of the buzzwords of today and could help replace older legacy technology across the travel and air transport sectors. Winding Tree has already secured agreements with the likes of Air France-KLM, Air New Zealand, Lufthansa and Swissport as it works to develop blockchain technology for the industry.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

20:25 – AWARDS: CAPA Large Airport of the Year 2018

This is awarded to the airport with over 30 million annual passengers that has been the biggest standout strategically, has established itself as a strategic leader, and done the most to advance the progress of the aviation industry.

The WINNER is… Orlando International Airport

“Orlando International has experienced a remarkable period of rapid growth that has positioned it as one of the ten largest airports in the US,” says CAPA – Centre for Aviation executive chairman, Peter Harbison. “The airport is well positioned to enjoy more rapid domestic and international growth and is also leading the way in customer processing efficiency with its adoption of biometric technology.”

Orlando International Airport was selected for its creative adoption of new technology and rapid growth.

Orlando overtook Miami in 2017 to become Florida’s busiest airport. Passenger numbers reached nearly 45 million in 2017 compared to less than 35 million in 2010 and Orlando should reach the 50 million milestone in 2019. Growth has accelerated the last four years with passenger numbers increasing by at least 6% every year since 2015.

Orlando has deepened its network breadth, securing a wide range of new services in recent years, including Emirates’ flights to Dubai and a recent build up by US ULCC Spirit Airlines. In addition to Dubai in the Middle East, Orlando’s international network now encompasses 20 destinations in Europe and 26 in Latin America, a remarkable feat for a non-hub airport. International traffic is on pace to reach 6.5 million passengers in 2018 compared to less than 3 million in 2009.

The airport is now planning a major capital improvement programme that will culminate in the planned opening of a new South Terminal in 2021. JetBlue, which is planning to pursue further rapid domestic and international expansion at Orlando, will be the anchor tenant. JetBlue is already the largest international airline at Orlando; another LCC, Southwest, is the largest domestic airline.

Orlando International is also at the forefront of technology adoption. The airport is positioning itself as the first US airport to fully deploy the Custom and Border Protection’s biometric entry and exit programme for the arrival and departure of international travellers.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

20:20 – AWARDS: CAPA Medium Airport of the Year 2018

This is awarded to the airport with over 10 million annual passengers that has been the biggest standout strategically, has established itself as a strategic leader, and done the most to advance the progress of the aviation industry.

The WINNER is… Avinor Oslo Airport

“Avinor Oslo has been a standout in Europe’s competitive airport sector for several years,” says CAPA – Centre for Aviation executive chairman, Peter Harbison. “The opening of the second terminal and the breaking ground on a further terminal extension as well as its innovative environmental work further positions Oslo’s main airport as a strategic leader in Europe and globally.”

Avinor Oslo Airport was selected for its innovation in the area of environmentalism and the opening of a second terminal. Oslo traffic has increased by more than 50% since 2010, when it handled only 19 million passengers. It is on pace to handle around 29 million passengers in 2018, making it the second biggest airport in the Nordic region despite Norway having the smallest population apart from Iceland.

“Norway’s airport authority, Avinor, has gained a reputation for seamless integration of new infrastructure, as witnessed by the successful integration of the EUR900 million Terminal 2 in 2017 and for its propensity for advance planning. Construction of a EUR350 million extension for the non-Schengen east terminal began in Oct-2018 and will increase the airport’s non-Schengen capacity by almost 50% to 8 million when it is completed in 2022. Oslo has experienced rapid growth in non-Europe traffic in recent years and the airport now has 14 links outside Europe.

“It is perhaps in the area of environmentalism that Norway and its leading airport are best known. The country has already set a date for the implementation of electrically-powered only aircraft on short haul routes (it already has the highest number of electric cars per capita in the world). For its part Avinor Oslo Airport is collaborating in an ambitious project to build a ‘sustainable’ and ‘energy positive’ (meaning solar powered) airport city to be built around an existing business park, using electric vehicles only. A geothermal power project has also been launched at the airport site.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

20:00 – Are you ready for the CAPA Aviation Awards for Excellence?

The CAPA Aviation Awards for Excellence have recognised strategic leadership in the aviation industry since 2002. Initially limited to Asia Pacific and the Middle East, the awards were expanded by CAPA in 2012 to include all regions. This year the Aviation Awards of Excellence are again presented at two gala dinners – one for the global industry here in Berlin tonight and one for Asia Pacific that took place in Singapore earlier this month.

You can find out the winners from Singapore here.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

19:00 – The tables are set and the drinks are ready!

The tables are set and the drinks are ready for the CAPA World Aviation Awards for Excellence Gala Dinner co-hosted by Berlin Brandenburg Airport and Travelport, which will commence at 7:30pm. Delegates are already mingling outside enjoying a pre-dinner networking drinks reception.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

17:30 – Countdown to tonight’s Awards for Excellence begins 

A lively day of debate comes to an end with the closure of today’s formal agenda, although we will back in a couple of hours with all the news from tonight’s Awards for Excellence during the CAPA Gala Dinner.  There will be nine awards presented tonight comprising CAPA Medium Airport of the Year, CAPA Large Airport of the Year,   CAPA Innovation of the Year, CAPA Airline Executive of the Year,   CAPA Airline of the Year , CAPA Low Cost Airline of the Year , CAPA Start-up of the Year, CAPA Airline Turnaround of the Year  and CAPA Regional Airline of the Year. Who do you think should win? Tweet us using the #CAPASummit hashtag.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

17:10 – What can I do to make my aeroplanes more awesome?

What can I do to make my aeroplanes more awesome? I wonder how many airlines have typed that into google? Well, Winding Tree, head of strategy & partnerships, Dave Montali says blockchain could help, especially with ticketing, loyalty maintenance and identity!


Tuesday 27th November 2018

16:50 – Last up today… Demystifying blockchain technology and its potential in aviation

Blockchain has undoubtedly been brought up as an agenda item in plenty of airline boardroom meetings but the lack of real world applications in the aviation industry to date has made it hard for CEOs to understand how the technology is supposed to be used in their business.

Lufthansa calls blockchain a “computer without hardware” – a gigantic decentralised database duplicated on multiple computers that allows information to be distributed securely without being copied, manipulated or hacked. For airlines, blockchain enables data to be shared in a more enhanced, risk free manner and promises to reduce complexity, cut costs and improve the traveller experience. It can also be deployed in a wide array of areas within the business from distribution to loyalty to operations and maintenance.

Winding Tree, head of strategy & partnerships, Dave Montali’s presentation attempts to unpack blockchain technology by providing examples of real and potential uses cases within the aviation sector and using digital apples!


Tuesday 27th November 2018

16:30 – Join the debate – via #CAPASummit


Tuesday 27th November 2018

16:10 – Up now… Distribution outlook: Dawn of a new era? How will airline distribution models evolve as the NDC standard and direct connect channels become commonplace?

Legacy distribution systems have for decades presented airlines with the twin problems of high costs and product commoditisation. In efforts to address these issues, a handful of carriers have invested heavily into establishing their own API channels with agents, while the concurrent push by IATA for airlines to implement the NDC standard has encouraged the industry to adopt a retail focused approach to distribution. In this new modernised distribution landscape, itself reflective of wider consumer expectations around seamlessness and personalisation, new opportunities are emerging for other intermediaries and aggregators such as metasearch companies (some of which now have direct booking capabilities), as well as digital behemoths such as Amazon, Google, and Facebook – to gain a slice of the pie. Meanwhile traditional GDS channels will need to evolve their models to remain relevant as fragmentation becomes the new norm.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

15:50 – Travelport works on successfully delivering NDC’s 2020 vision

Under NDC’s 2020 vision, 21 airlines have committed to transact 20% of their third party sales via an IATA NDC API by 31-Dec-2020. Travelport made its first live pilot in Oct-2018 and says while it is early days, the NDC API is “working ok”. Its global head of air, Damian Hickey, says success is “reliant on collaboration”, highlighting tripartite engagement between airlines, agencies and aggregator partners as essential. “Everyone needs to embrace change, be open to experimentation, never lose sight of the customer and all parties need to allow time for change and adjustment,” he says.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

15:25 – Are we asking the right questions about future commercial strategies?

Peter Harbison highlights in comments on stage following the fascinating commercial outlook session: “We are continuously looking for answers, but are we asking the right questions?”


Tuesday 27th November 2018

15:15 – airBaltic is sharing their #CAPASummit insight 


Tuesday 27th November 2018

15:00 – LEVEL CEO: ‘I don’t think of us as a virtual airline’

Vincent Hodder, the CEO of IAG’s low cost disruptor brand LEVEL says “I don’t think of us as a virtual airline” but as a lower cost, customer-centric evolution in the airline model. He says it is perhaps on a journey to a destination “that is not even known as yet”.

The Blue Swan Daily featured his thoughts after speaking to him at CAPA’s Low Cost Long Haul Summit last month.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

14:55 – Join the debate – via #CAPASummit


Tuesday 27th November 2018

14:45 – Up Next… The commercial outlook: What revenue optimisation strategies are airlines pursuing in an increasingly price sensitive global market?

Low fuel prices and new competition have forced airlines to pass on savings directly to consumers, which has led to a surge in supply driven traffic growth as price sensitive travellers take advantage of low fares. But rising oil prices bring into question the sustainability of continued fare decreases, and could temper demand from leisure markets.

As airlines adjust to the new operating conditions, they can opt to maintain growth, at the expense of profits, increase fares and dull demand, undertake non fuel cost cutting initiatives or seek alternative revenue optimisation strategies.

In the Americas for example, product unbundling and fare families have been adopted by the major carriers to both combat growing LCC competition and capture the leisure market. Likewise in Europe, many full service carriers are segmenting their economy cabins and unbundling their product.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

14:35 – ‘Marketplace dynamics are driving the need for intelligent retailing’

Sabre Airline Solutions, director, Christophe Viatte says “marketplace dynamics are driving the need for intelligent retailing”. He says the modern traveller is changing the way airlines must operate with Millennials representing approximately 50% of business travel by 2020 and a group that “shop across devices, want flexibility of choice and self-service offerings”. The former Czech Airlines and airBaltic executive says airlines “need to differentiate to drive revenue in a competitive marketplace” and “technology evolution is enabling digital transformation”. A move will be required towards dynamic pricing to optimise and personalise offers, he adds.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

14:30 – ‘Hybrid’ will become the new norm, says airBaltic boss

airBaltic, chairman of the board and CEO, Martin Gauss is again heavily promoting the value of the Airbus A220 (or the Bombardier CSeries as many of us still call the aircraft). The airline is among the biggest customers for the aircraft and believes that its capacity and range are the perfect fit for its operations allowing it to deploy the aircraft to destinations as close as Tallinn or as far as Abu Dhabi. He says that the airline’s hybrid model is the new industry norm. “In a few years it will be the baseline for airlines,” he adds.

The airline has recently painted one of its A220s in a special livery honouring Latvia’s 100 year anniversary.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

14:15 – Some quotes from this afternoon’s first panel 

“With so many new aircraft coming into Asia, we not a lot of pilots, mechanics and more to fly and support them.”
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, director general, Andrew Herdman

“With the Airbus A220 we can compete with turboprops on the routes that we serve.”
airBaltic, chairman of the board & CEO, Martin Gauss

“Africa to China is a flow that we see an opportunity.”
Gulf Air, CEO, Krešimir Kučko

“The role of alliances versus JVs, versus super powerful groups remains to be determined.”
LOT Polish Airlines, CEO, Rafał Milczarski

“The profitability for Asian carriers is patchy. It’s a really mixed picture.”
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, director general, Andrew Herdman

“Overnight things can change very quickly in our industry.”
airBaltic, chairman of the board & CEO, Martin Gauss

“Our niche is to become the best in class.”
Gulf Air, CEO, Krešimir Kučko

“We try to cooperate firstly with partners within the alliance, but that is not always possible.”
LOT Polish Airlines, CEO, Rafał Milczarski

“We haven’t seen the failures In Asia that we have seen in Europe and there remains an appetite to start new airlines in the region.”
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, director general, Andrew Herdman

“We can grow to Up to 50 aircraft to serve the Baltics, beyond that scale we will look elsewhere, but in markets that we already know.”
airBaltic, chairman of the board & CEO, Martin Gauss

“Hopefully by 2022 we would like to go to the United States of America.”
Gulf Air, CEO, Krešimir Kučko

“Everything will be determined on the value of alliances and JVs at the next major downturn.”
LOT Polish Airlines, CEO, Rafał Milczarski


Tuesday 27th November 2018

13:50 – Up now… Emerging markets outlook: What’s driving growth in Asia, Middle East and Eastern Europe?

Leaders of carriers from the high growth, high potential markets within Asia, Europe and the Middle East share their current commercial and operating challenges and the future outlook for the region’s aviation industry.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

13:30 – What are the world’s hottest current aviation growth markets

Winter temperatures in Austria may be close to freezing point, but the same certainly cannot be said of its aviation sector this winter. After a significant growth in activity 2018, particularly in the LCC sector, the European nation is forecast to be the fastest growing of the world’s top 50 aviation country markets over the current Northern Hemisphere winter schedule with departure seats growing by more than a quarter versus winter 2017/2018.

Find out more in our recent The Blue Swan Daily analysis…


Tuesday 27th November 2018

13:15 – CAPA News Briefs – keep up-to-date with all the insights from Berlin

CAPA subscribers will have all the key discussion points, insights and quotes from the World Aviation Outlook Summit at their fingertips via the News Briefs product.

If you are not a member, find out how you can also get a front row seat to global aviation news, analysis and data as it happens, with access to a comprehensive suite of tools that can be customised to your needs.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

13:00 – It’s time for lunch… but lots more to come this afternoon

It’s been a busy morning of discussions. It’s now time for lunch, but there’s so much more to come, First up after the break will be a panel discussion on emerging markets, where leaders of carriers from the high growth, high potential markets within Asia, Europe and the Middle East will share their current commercial and operating challenges and the future outlook for each region’s aviation industry.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

12:50 – Reuters: Lufthansa CEO still sees too many airlines in Europe

Reuters have already posted a story from this morning’s discussions…

The chief executive of Germany’s Lufthansa said there are still too many airlines in Europe and he expects the company to be involved in more consolidation in the industry that will eventually leave three global carriers in the continent. “There are way too many players in Europe,” Carsten Spohr told a meeting of the Centre for Aviation in Berlin on Tuesday, noting that six airlines had gone bankrupt in the last few months. “It is obvious that consolidation will act further and we as Lufthansa want to be part of that,” he said. “There will most likely be three major European network carriers or groups of carriers, plus one or two low cost guys.”

READ the full story


Tuesday 27th November 2018

12:40 – The airberlin brand is still flying, over a year after its collapse

The airberlin brand is still publicly visible throughout Berlin. Arriving at Berlin Tegel Airport the branding is clearly visible around the airport and buildings over a year after the airline’s closure. In fact there are still aircraft flying with airberlin branding, although  Lufthansa’s chairman and CEO, Carsten Spohr says that will shortly come to an end.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

12: 25 – Up next… The German market outlook: the more things change, the more they stay the same?

The high-profile departure of the airberlin Group from the German market in Oct-2017 has occurred with minimal disruption, opening up opportunities for existing players, mainly Lufthansa and its subsidiary Eurowings, to grow their seat share.

The Lufthansa Group has absorbed much of the capacity once held by the failed carrier, further consolidating its near monopoly hold on the domestic market (easyJet, which also grabbed a share of airberlin’s seats, is the only airline that is challenging Lufthansa’s domestic dominance in any meaningful way). The group also leads overall German seat capacity by a sizeable margin. Through Eurowings, Lufthansa has managed to keep Ryanair and easyJet – who have managed to conquer in other country markets more successfully – at bay.

While the status quo doesn’t appear to be under threat any time soon, Germany’s four other indigenous airlines are quietly embarking on expansion plans of their own, their collective growth outpacing that of their three larger competitors. Meanwhile, in developments across the border, Ryanair’s investment in LCC Laudamotion gives it access to coveted slots in both Austria and Germany and is sure to put the German flag on notice.

On the regulatory front, aviation taxes are presenting major cost implications for the industry, with Germany having one of the highest aviation taxes in the world. Other costs have increased as well, such as aviation security charges, which have risen by +75% since 2011 and will cost airlines around EUR750 million in 2018.

With the market undergoing some dynamic changes and costs increasing, the big question is what is the outlook for German aviation and how will the competitive position of the current players evolve?


Tuesday 27th November 2018

12:15 – Berlin Brandenburg Airport ‘WILL open in Oct-2020’ 

We have heard many dates for the opening of Berlin Brandenburg Airport, all that have been missed. But, CEO, Engelbert Luetke Daldrup reinforces that the new airport remains planned for Oct-2020 opening. “We will open in Oct-2020 you can rely on it,” he says. The first priority will be to open terminal 1 to “replace Tegel capacity”. Terminal 2 is “already under construction” and Mr Daldrup describes it as a “role model for future development”. He believes that with the pull of Berlin as a destination, there is a great opportunity to deliver new long-haul connectivity into the city.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

12:10 – Berlin – the cradle of German aviation and soon home to the country’s newest airport

Aviation has a long history in Berlin and is actually the original home of flag carrier Lufthansa. Berlin Brandenburg Airport, CEO, Engelbert Luetke Daldrup acknowledges that Berlin’s airport system has been the “talking point” of the world due to the delayed opening of the new Berlin Brandenburg Airport. While, Berlin is not among Lufthansa’s hubs, it remains a major destination for travellers – both business and leisure. “It is the capital, and that has its own pull,” says the executive.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

12:00 – Mobile platforms ‘ideally placed to facilitate loyalty programmes’ for airlines, but wide variation in adoption means airlines need to adapt strategies

Here are some thoughts from our coffee break and networking session sponsor, CarTrawler, It’s chief technology officer, Bobby Healy believes the mobile platform is a personalised device that is “ideally placed to facilitate loyalty programmes” and the centre of changes in distributing travel is the digitisation of loyalty programmes.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

11:45 – Time for a quick break

Lots of interesting insights to digest from this morning’s session. It’s now time for a short networking break, kindly hosted by CarTrawler.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

11:40 – Up now… A quick CAPA membership plug

Today, the global aviation and travel industry is undergoing significant and rapid change. Keeping up with these changes is getting harder every day. In a turbulent world, repeating the same thing we’ve done before is a guarantee for disaster. That’s where CAPA – Centre for Aviation is there to help!

CAPA provides access to the resources people need to stay connected and up to date fast. Its four key pillars, our news, analysis, data and events, give customers the confidence and connections they need to make informed, strategic decisions.

CAPA’s head of sales & global partnerships, Rowan Lanser shares some messages for the audience.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

11:30 – In conversation with Lufthansa’s Carsten Spohr

Berlin may be the “fastest growing aviation market for the Lufthansa Group” currently, according to Lufthansa chairman and CEO, Carsten Spohr, but there are no plans to make the city home to a future airline or group hub.

He says: “Nobody can build a hub without feeding it, perhaps with the exception of London and Paris… We already have two hubs in Germany (four in Europe when you consider Vienna and Zurich)… We don’t share view we need another hub in Germany… Maybe we could with JV partners instead, that’s part of the Lufthansa Group business model, but politicians son’t see that as Lufthansa”.

Mt Spohr believes that “not all the aircraft that have been sold by OEMs, will be bought” and he believes Lufthansa Group is well placed and ready to pick-up aircraft orders with good deals from Airbus and Boeing and from airlines that fail or cannot take parts of their orders. On the subject of airline failures, he adds that airlines should be allowed to fail and be harvested later instead of being “bailed out” through mergers or acquisitions.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

11:15 – Join the debate – via #CAPASummit


Tuesday 27th November 2018

11:00 – Carsten Spohr: ‘We are the good guys with globalisation’

“We are the good guys with globalisation,” says Lufthansa chairman & CEO Carsten Spohr. “We are too busy talking about the negatives and fighting with one another to talk about the many positives of air transportation.”

Lufthansa “doesn’t consider ourselves as a German airline now. We are a European group,” says Mr Spohr. “We wouldn’t have been successful had we not been permitted via the European framework to grow as we have today.”


Tuesday 27th November 2018

10:55 – Up next… Air Travel – an Engine of Globalisation

Our first summit session continues with our keynote address from Lufthansa chairman & CEO Carsten Spohr.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

10:50 – In the media – our keynote speaker is already speaking to the press

Well known aviation writer Andreas Speath is never one to miss an opportunity. The Lufthansa chairman & CEO Carsten Spohr is due on stage shortly for his keynote address, but he already been grabbed by the journalist for an interview.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

10:45 – Current and future Ownership & Control of airlines are the big issues for future aviation agreement post Brexit

The panellists are in agreement that current and future ownership and control of airlines are the big issues for future aviation agreement post Brexit. They all expected the Mar-2019 deadline to be extended, by as much as two years!

Whitaker Air Space, principal, Michael Whitaker highlights that ‘negotiation’ is probably not the correct word for these discussions. “We are negotiating an agreement that is to maintain the status quo. We are seeking to negotiate a position that allows us to keep things exactly the same,” he says.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

10:40 – Join the debate- via #CAPASummit


Tuesday 27th November 2018

10:30 – The UK and US will meet tomorrow to discuss new bilateral agreement

Respected aviation consultant John Byerly, who knows a few things about negotiating air service agreements, provides delegates with some insight into the framework of a proposed agreement between the UK and US for the post-Brexit world, He describes it as “pretty much based” on the existing terms of the US-EU agreement, with specific rights for US and UK air carriers. Latest discussions on this matter are due to take place tomorrow (28-Nov-2018).


Tuesday 27th November 2018

10:20 – ‘There’s no upside to Brexit for aviation. it is about managing the downsides’

The Blue Swan Daily has reported heavily on how air transport will be impacted by United Kingdom’s European Union Brexit.  Croon Callaghan Aviation Consulting, Partner, Jim Callaghan says: ‘There’s no upside to Brexit for aviation. it is about managing the downsides’.

“There’s a huge layer of uncertainty,” says European Regions Airline Association (ERA), director general, Montserrat Barriga. She says current plans are “too general”, and adds: “This is becoming very serious issue… The uncertainty is so huge”.

Here’s some of our related stories…


Tuesday 27th November 2018

10:10 – Join the debate – via #CAPASummit


Tuesday 27th November 2018

10:00 – Up next… The outlook for UK-Europe, the trans-Atlantic and open skies: How are airlines preparing for the post-Brexit world?

The UK’s exit from the EU is fast approaching – yet uncertainty remains. The European Commission has maintained that when the UK leaves the EU it will also leave the single aviation market, meaning the UK will have to negotiate a new bilateral air service agreement with the rest of the bloc in order to ensure traffic rights for its airlines. It must also negotiate new bilaterals with 17 non-EU countries where rights are currently granted under EU agreements. The most important of these is a renegotiation of the UK-US deal, which is set to govern the rules of engagement for flights between the two countries across the highly lucrative trans-Atlantic market.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

09:50 – ‘It may not be Silicon Valley’ but aviation is ‘a growth industry’

Boeing Commercial Airplanes, director, market forecasting, Wendy Sowers says that while aviation may not deliver the growth rates seen in Silicon Valley, we must remember it is a growth industry.  She says that “balanced growth” is driving the market due to a rising propensity of travel. Boeing predicts the global fleet will double over next 20 years, but composition will change with an increasing number of single-aisle aircraft, thanks to their enhanced performance.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

09:45 – It’s a full house in the Grand Hyatt Berlin ballroom


Tuesday 27th November 2018

09:40 – Business models are evolving and legacy models ‘squeezed’

Airbus, SVP business analysis & market forecast, Bob Lange says that business models are evolving. Older legacy models have been “squeezed” and the hybrid model has proliferated. He also notes that in 2017, emerging country populations made an average of just 0.3 trips per capita. As middle class develops, more people will access air travel and by 2037 emerging country populations will exceed 0.8 trips per capita.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

09:30 – join the debate! – via #CAPASummit


Tuesday 27th November 2018

09:20 – The global macroeconomic outlook and implications for airline profitability

“Macro matters,” for air transport, says IATA, chief economist, Brian Pearce. “The economic cycle is important for air travel and cargo.” He says that while we talk about fuel being a big current problem, he says, “i’m not sure it is… I don’t think it is the key issue right now.” He warns: “Expansion cycles don’t last forever.” The current expansion period is ten years old. “When will it end?” he questions. On a positive he believes it will “not be sudden” and we can expect “growth in 2019”, albeit likely at a slower rate.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

09:15 – The China Outlook – the big impact of high speed rail

CAPA Centre for  Aviation executive chairman, Peter Harbison initially focuses on China, discussing high speed rail and how it is and will impact air transport. “As aviation becomes more congested, the train becomes more attractive,” he explains. “The impact on airline operations will be significant. It is really going to dilute the progression in China.” While traffic is being diverted to rail, he highlights that there is the opportunity to build multi-modal strategy and better link air and rail.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

09:10 – Up now… Current Market Outlook: A Meeting of the Minds

A meeting of the minds as CAPA – Centre for Aviation, executive chairman, Peter Harbison, is joined on stage by Airbus, SVP business analysis & market forecast, Bob Lange; Boeing Commercial Airplanes, director, market forecasting, Wendy Sowers; and IATA, chief economist, Brian Pearce.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

09:00 – But first… a welcome from our hosts…

Historically, “the city of Berlin owes a lot to air transport,”says Federal Ministry of Transport & Digital Infrastructure , director general of civil aviation, Johann Friedrich Colsman, so it is the perfect city to look at the development of aviation into the future. He says the German Government is “a supporter of liberalisation”, but wants to ensure any agreement provides “a level playing field”.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

08:50 – ‘Start Me Up’  and away we go!

CAPA – Centre for Aviation executive chairman Peter Harbison takes to the stage to welcome delegates to the CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit in Berlin with a message of thanks to our hosts, sponsors and to the city. “If I didn’t live in Sydney, I would live in Berlin,” he says. We are all set for a couple of days of enlightening insight.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

08:35 – The countdown commences… prepare for take-off

It is just ten minutes until the opening of the CAPA- Centre for Aviation World Aviation Outlook  Summit. The Rolling Stones are on pause ready for CAPA executive chairman to take to the stage for his welcome address.

600 seconds… 599 seconds… 598 seconds….


Tuesday 27th November 2018

08:30 – Reminder… you can view the Summit from the comfort of your office!

If you couldn’t make it to Berlin then don’t worry. To ensure you don’t miss any of the thought-provoking discussions that are expected, CAPA – Centre for Aviation will be providing a free LIVE STREAM of the Summit which will follow all the agenda proceedings (details here – all local Berlin, Germany time).

To access the live stream, visit centreforaviation.com during the Summit hours

Whether you’ll be joining us in Berlin or from your desk, be sure to join the conversation! If you have any comments on the topics explored at the Summit, please tweet them using the Summit hashtag #CAPASummit.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

08:15 – Join the debate – tweets via #CAPASummit


Tuesday 27th November 2018

08:00 – Registration is now open!

It’s less than an hour before the Summit opens and the registration and networking area is open to delegates.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

07:30 –SIGN UP to The Blue Swan Daily news, analysis and insights

The Blue Swan Daily platform has spread its wings and issues are now available for Asia; the Americas; Europe, the Middle East and Africa; and the South Pacific. Make sure you visit the site and sign up for regional focused material on the aviation and wider travel industry. Here’s some of its recent stories…


Tuesday 27th November 2018

07:00 – The calm before the storm

It is just a couple of hours until the formal agenda starts on day one of the CAPA-Centre for Aviation World Aviation Outlook Summit at the Grand Hyatt Berlin in Germany’s capital. All is quiet in the conference hall and networking areas, although the CAPA team have been beavering away for a couple of hours ensuring a smooth delivery of today’s programme.


Tuesday 27th November 2018

06:30 – Guten Morgen to everyone in Berlin, or wherever you are in the world


Monday 26th November 2018

22:00 – Wait until tomorrow… for debate and discussion of strategic issues facing the aviation industry

What will tomorrow bring? A packed schedule of enlightening discussions unrivalled in coverage of the top strategic issues affecting the aviation and travel markets. A full day of discussions is in store with events kicking-off at 08:45 with welcome introductions from CAPA, executive chairman, Peter Harbison, and  Germany’s federal ministry of transport & digital infrastructure, director general of civil aviation, Johann Friedrich Colsman. This will be followed with presentations on CAPA’s industry outlook, IATA’s view on the global macroeconomic outlook and its implications for airline profitability and insights into future demand from OEMs Airbus and Boeing. And that’s just the first hour!


Monday 26th November 2018

21:00 – Networking with seasonal cheer – welcome reception pictures


Monday 26th November 2018

20:00 – Join the debate via #CAPASummit

Follow the CAPA World Aviation Outlook Summit on Twitter and if you have any comments on the topics being explored at the Summit then join the debate: #CAPASummit.

Here’s some tweets from ahead of the event…


Monday 26th November 2018

19:00 – Can’t make it to a rather chilly Berlin? Follow the action from tomorrow via our Live Stream

If you can’t make it to a rather chilly Berlin then don’t worry. To ensure you don’t miss any of the thought-provoking discussions that are expected, CAPA – Centre for Aviation will be providing a free LIVE STREAM of the Summit which will follow all the agenda proceedings (details here – all local Berlin, Germany time).


Monday 26th November 2018

18:00 – With almost double the rate of growth this winter, is Germany set to overtake the UK as Europe’s largest market?

We are all growing increasingly tired hearing about Brexit, but with turmoil within the ruling Conservative Party as a deal is about to be formalised with Europe on the departure of United Kingdom from the European Union, any certainty over UK air transport activity from Mar-2019 remains uncertain.


Monday 26th November 2018

17:00 – It’s already dark in Berlin, but the local area is lit up by the festive markets

Although the formal Summit agenda does not start until the morning, all delegates are able to join tonight’s Welcome Reception at Schmankerl Hüttn, Potsdamer Platz (approximately 5-10 minute walk from the Grand Hyatt event Hotel). It all starts in an hour at 18:00 local time.


Monday 26th November 2018

16:00 – It’s all starting to take shape!


Monday 26th November 2018

15:00 – It may be Germany’s capital city, but why is long-haul ‘insufficiently developed’ in Berlin?

To an outsider there are two peculiarities about Berlin in its relation to the aviation business. The first one is the interminable amount of time being taken to open Willy Brandt Berlin Brandenburg Airport, which is being built alongside the existing Schönefeld airport. That issue has been well aired but the other peculiarity hasn’t – the paucity of long-haul air service at the Berlin airports.


Monday 26th November 2018

13:00 – What’s in store over the next couple of days?

It’s hardly a secret that the airline industry is facing myriad challenges, notably in the marketing and distribution areas, as companies with personalised data, and the analytics and artificial intelligence to go with it, become greater threats to the stability of the traditional airline model. Understanding aviation markets is CAPA’s great strength and passion and the event agenda in Berlin includes a variety of topics sure to generate interest.

Alongside keynotes from Lufthansa, Wizz Air and Berlin Airports and a look at the global macroeconomic outlook and implications for airline profitability, topics under discussion include:

  • The outlook for UK-Europe, the trans-Atlantic and open skies: How are airlines preparing for the post-Brexit world?
  • The German market outlook: the more things change, the more they stay the same?
  • Emerging markets outlook: What’s driving growth in Asia, Middle East and Eastern Europe?
  • The commercial outlook: What revenue optimisation strategies are airlines pursuing in an increasingly price sensitive global market?
  • Distribution outlook: Dawn of a new era? How will airline distribution models evolve as the NDC standard and direct connect channels become commonplace?
  • Demystifying blockchain technology and its potential in aviation
  • Digital outlook: True, fast and profitable innovation – Speeding up the transformation of the industry
  • Europe market outlook: Slow and steady wins the race? The ongoing and gradual restructure of the European airline market
  • As the mobile travel marketplace evolves, what are the lessons to ensure airlines continue to win?
  • Environmental outlook: Aviation growth and environmental sustainability. Are the two goals mutually exclusive?
  • The Great Debate: Can aviation unions be a force for good?

CHECK OUT the full event AGENDA.


Monday 26th November 2018

11:00 – The German market: the more things change, the more they stay the same?

The high-profile departure of the airberlin Group from the German market in Oct-2017 has occurred with minimal disruption, opening up opportunities for existing players, mainly Lufthansa and its subsidiary Eurowings, to grow their seat share.

While the status quo doesn’t appear to be under threat any time soon, Germany’s four other indigenous airlines are quietly embarking on expansion plans of their own.

With the market undergoing some dynamic changes and costs increasing, the big question is what is the outlook for German aviation and how will the competitive position of the current players evolve?


Monday 26th November 2018

09:00 – Behind the Scenes – Build up has started at the Grand Hyatt Berlin venue

The CAPA – Centre for Aviation events team has been on site for a couple of days ensuring everything is prepared for the Summit. Here’s some images from the early stages of the event build…


Monday 26th November 2018

07:00 –Willkommen! Welcome to Berlin!

Good morning from The Grand Hyatt Berlin in Germany’s capital and largest city as Berlin Airports hosts the CAPA – Centre for Aviation World Aviation Outlook Summit. The CAPA event team are all on site working hard to prepare everything for the event, which will attempt to look into the future and provide some insights for the industry in 2019.